With less than two weeks to go until the start of the MLB playoffs, the postseason chase is nearing the finish line. But what if the MLB regular season ended on Monday?
If that happens, the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers would receive first-round byes in the National League, with the Milwaukee Brewers winning the Central and the Philadelphia Phillies, Arizona Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins earning wild-card spots. In the American League, the Baltimore Orioles and Houston Astros would have a bye, with the Minnesota Twins winning the Central and the Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers earning the wild card.
The third-seeded Twins would play the Rangers (No. 6) and the Rays (No. 4) would play the Blue Jays (No. 5) in AL wild-card games. The NL wild card games would pit the Brewers (No. 3) against the Marlins (No. 6) and the Phillies (No. 4) against the Diamondbacks (No. 5).
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Which teams should you be watching this week? Athletic You described how the 2023 MLB playoff picture is still taking shape. Potential matches will be updated weekly.
American League standings
head of the AL division
| team | W | L | DIVISION MANAGEMENT | GB NO. 1 | THIS WEEK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
93 |
56 |
2 |
– |
in HOU, in CLE |
|
|
84 |
66 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
vs. BAL, vs. K.C |
|
|
79 |
71 |
7.0 |
14.5 |
in CIN, vs. LAA |
AL wild card race
| TEAM | W | L | GB DIV | GB WC | THIS WEEK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
92 |
59 |
2 |
Up to 9.0 |
vs. LAA, vs. TOR |
|
|
83 |
67 |
10.5 |
Up 0.5 |
in NYY, in TB |
|
|
82 |
67 |
1.5 |
– |
vs. BOS, vs. SEA |
|
|
81 |
68 |
2.5 |
1 |
at OAK, at TEX |
National league standings
Head of NL division
| team | W | L | DIVISION MANAGEMENT | GB NO. 1 | THIS WEEK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
96 |
53 |
15 |
– |
vs. PHI in WSH |
|
|
91 |
57 |
13.5 |
4.5 |
vs. DET, vs. SF |
|
|
84 |
65 |
6.5 |
12 |
to STL, to MIA |
NL wild card race
| TEAM | W | L | GB DIV | GB WC | THIS WEEK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
81 |
68 |
15 |
Up 3.5 |
in ATL vs. NYM |
|
|
79 |
72 |
13.5 |
Up 0.5 |
vs. SF in NYY |
|
|
78 |
72 |
18.5 |
– |
vs. NYM vs. THOUSANDS |
|
|
78 |
72 |
6.5 |
– |
vs. PIT vs. COL |
|
|
78 |
73 |
7 |
0.5 |
vs. MIN, vs. DRINK |
|
|
76 |
74 |
16 |
2 |
at ARI, at LAD |
Key pitchers
Rangers at Twins
Consider Griffin Jax a bit of a backup for anyone in the bullpen not named Jhoan Duran. For nearly three months in the middle of the season, Jax was the one preparing Duran, blocking block after block. However, over the last month, Jax’s ERA has been approaching ninth, and the Twins’ pen is much shakier than before. Any eventual World Series champion needs Tyler Matzek or Ryan Brasier to step up and get key outs. Minnesota is going to have to find that guy, whether it’s Jax or Louie Varland or Brock Stewart.
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Blue Jays at Rays
Which Aaron Civale will show up in October? The one who excelled for four months in Cleveland, or the one who endured a rough patch for Tampa Bay in recent weeks?
Civale continues to keep the Rays in games — he’s allowed more than three runs just twice in 21 starts this season — but he’s not going as deep into them. The Rays’ rotation lost Shane McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen this season, and Tyler Glasnow has been hit harder the last few games. To win a wild-card series, a team that changed our perception of what a starter could be still needs quality innings from its rotation.
Marlins at Brewers
Brandon Woodruff’s three September starts: 22 innings pitched, 11 hits, 19 strikeouts, one earned run. It’s a reminder that Milwaukee enters the final fortnight of the season with a relatively comfortable lead in the NL Central despite just 10 starts from the right-hander, whose ERA has dropped to 1.89 in those games.
Few teams can match Corbin Burnes with their own ace for Game 1 of a postseason series. Maybe no team can match Woodruff in Game 2 when he’s pitching like this.
Diamondbacks at Phillies
In back-to-back starts through the end of August, Aaron Nola finished the seventh inning to lift Philadelphia to victory. In seven starts around that pair, Nola had a total of one out after the fifth inning. He did not finish fifth in any of his three starts in September.
It’s a puzzling stretch in a puzzling season for the right-hander, whose 4.62 ERA makes 2021 look less like an outlier and more like the start of a downward trend. For a guy about to hit free agency, this postseason could be doubly important to assuage doubts about his stuff and re-establish himself as one of the game’s best starters.
Most interesting race: American League East
What a performance Sunday from the Orioles, who rallied late to win in extras, split their four-game series with the Rays and stay two games up — three in the loss column — with two weeks to go.
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Orioles, Rays clinch playoff spots
So much remains at stake here: The winner gets the top seed in the American League, cementing home-field advantage through the AL Championship Series and avoiding the wild-card round entirely. The loser is stuck playing a best-of-three series at home against the Blue Jays or the AL West.
The O’s have the scheduling advantage, but spend the first part of this week in Houston. After that, it’s four in Cleveland, two at home against the Nationals and four at home against the Red Sox. Tampa Bay has six games with Toronto — at home this weekend, up north next weekend — along with three games with the Angels and two in Boston. Baltimore owns the tiebreaker, so the Rays must beat the Orioles by at least three games to win the division.
Biggest movers: Reds and Marlins
During the NL wild card race, the Reds did their job by winning a pair of road series against bad teams in Detroit and Queens. The Marlins rebounded from a series loss to one first-place team (Milwaukee) by sweeping another (Atlanta) and their playoff chances rose the most since last week.
Context surrounding these relatively modest successes: The Diamondbacks outscored Cincinnati at Citi Field by losing three of four. The Giants have lost three of four against the Rockies. The Cubs were swept in Arizona. One solid winning streak can probably clinch one of the last two spots.
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National League Series to Watch: Giants at Diamondbacks
It’s a short game for two on Tuesday and Wednesday, but it could represent San Francisco’s last gasp at competitive relevance in 2023. (By that I mean, if all of these teams in the NL don’t continue to face off, but what odds? trailing Arizona this month, the Giants are 6-10 in September and fall 2 1/2 games behind the Snakes.
Good news all around? Each team has its best pitcher lined up: Alex Cobb vs. Zac Gallen in the opening and Logan Webb vs. Merrill Kelly in the final.
American League Series to Watch: Mariners at Rangers
They are separated by one game in the AL playoff picture and will play seven times over the final 10 days of the regular season. It could very well play out as a seven-game streak over the course of a week and a half. Texas hosts the top three this weekend, with Jordan Montgomery facing off against Logan Gilbert as the top pitching prospect on Saturday night.
The Rangers have won five of six from Seattle so far this season, so they’ll clinch the tiebreaker by taking two of their last seven.
Required reading
(Photo: Scott Taetsch/USA Today)
